Archive 2008

Vision of 2020 with Maximum Introduction of Technology <Outline>

Mar 28, 2008

- Trial calculation based on "Outlook for Long-Term Energy Supply and Demand" -

On March 19, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry formulated “Outlook for Long-Term Energy Supply and Demand.” In addition, METI calculated and announced the energy supply and demand structure and CO2 emissions thereof in 2020, and also announced the social cost required.

* “Outlook for Long-Term Energy Supply and Demand” is formulated roughly every three to five years as a report of the Energy Supply and Demand Subcommittee under Advisory Committee for Energy with an aim to provide information about Japan’s energy supply and demand structure in the future as a basis for considering and evaluating policies and measures.

1. Methodology of Analysis

Japan’s energy supply and demand structure and CO2 emissions thereof in 2030 (and in 2020 as a point in time course) were calculated taking into account the progress of energy technologies and their dissemination on the assumption that the Japanese economy would achieve a stable growth despite relatively high energy prices.

2. Results and Assessment (Maximum Introduction Case)

In the case assuming utmost dissemination of equipments, of which energy efficiency performance will significantly improve with cutting-edge technologies that are already at deployment stage, while not imposing obligatory measures on the people:

- Much higher energy efficiency compared with European region is to be retained (improvement of energy efficiency by about 30%).

- This leads to GHG emissions reduction, of which level is comparable with the EU target.

Energy efficiency*: 0.11 (2005) → 0.08 (2020)

Reference
European Council of Environment Ministers:
0.20 (2005) → 0.13 (2020)

* Total Primary Energy Supply/GDP (million ton oil equivalent/US$1,000)

Total GHG emissions:
1,214 million t-CO2 (▲11% from the 2005 level, ▲4% from the 1990 level)
Energy-related CO2 emissions:
1,026 million t-CO2 (▲13% from the 2005 level, ▲3% from the 1990 level)
Emissions of other GHGs:
188 million t-CO2* (+2% from the 2005 level, ▲1% reduction from the 1990 level)

* Trial calculations are made by METI with certain assumption other than those of the Outlook for Long-Term Energy Supply and Demand.

Reference
  • l Assuming that 3.8% forest sinks are maintained, this corresponds to ▲14% from the 2005 level and ▲8% from the 1990 level
  • O European Council of Environment Ministers (▲14% from the 2005 level, ▲ 20% from the 1990 level)
  • O Lieberman-Warner Bill of the U.S. (▲19% from the 2005 level, ▲4% from the 1990 level)

3. Maximum Introduction Case (Concrete Image and Cost)

To realize the Maximum Introduction Case, the cost of approximately 52 trillion yen must be born by the society in the future. Taking into account the necessary R&D cost, the total annual cost accounts for about 1% of GDP.

 

Business Sector
25.5 trillion yen is born by the business sector as a whole (excluding the research and development cost).
Plants: The world’s most advanced technologies are introduced at the time of renewal of equipments in such industries as steel and chemical.
Offices and others: The most advanced energy-saving equipments such as IT hardware are introduced in almost all the offices and workplaces.
Household Sector
26.7 trillion yen is born by the people as a whole.
Houses: All of the home electric appliances purchased in the market are the most efficient ones at the current market. The dissemination of solar panels is to be ten times compared with the current level.
Vehicles: Next-generation vehicles are disseminated in an accelerated manner (one out of two new vehicles sold and one out of five vehicles in possession).

Reference: Assumption behind calculation and case settings

Assumption
Base year: 2005
Target year: 2030
Economic growth rate: 2.1% in 2005-2010, 1.9% in 2010-2020 and 1.2% in 2020-2030
Crude oil price: $90 per barrel in 2020 and $100 per barrel in 2030
Case settings
Technology Frozen Case:
New technologies are not to be introduced after the base year, leaving the efficiency of equipments unchanged.
Continuous Efforts Case:
The efforts to improve the efficiency of equipments up to date are to be continued on the trajectory of existing technologies.
Maximum Introduction Case:
In addition to the above Continuous Effort Case, this case assumes utmost dissemination of equipments, of which energy efficiency performance will significantly improve with cutting-edge technologies that are already at deployment stage, while not imposing obligatory measures on the people.

Outlook for Energy Related CO2 Emissions

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